The 2026 local and regional elections, taking place on Thursday 7th May 2026, are set to become one of the most consequential political showdowns in modern UK history.
Scotland and Wales stand at a crossroads, facing an era of unprecedented turbulence where long-held loyalties are crumbling, new parties are surging, and the future balance of power hangs in the balance. With debates over independence, economic reform, and social policy intensifying, these elections have the potential to reshape the political landscape for a generation.
Beyond their immediate impact on devolved politics, the 2026 Welsh and Scottish elections will serve as a critical bellwether for the 2029 UK general election. Early polling suggests shifting allegiances across all major parties, with Reform UK’s rise, Plaid Cymru’s resurgence, and declining Labour support signalling deeper structural changes in voter behaviour. Political analysts widely view these elections as a testing ground for national sentiment, offering a rare glimpse into the likely electoral dynamics and power struggles shaping Westminster’s future.For organisations, charities, businesses, and campaigners seeking to influence policymaking in Cardiff Bay and Holyrood, these elections will reshape the balance of power — making it vital to understand how to lobby effectively.
Wales: A New Era for the Senedd
The 2026 Senedd election marks the most significant overhaul in 25 years!
- The number of Members of the Senedd will expand from 60 to 96.
- A new proportional representation system will make coalition governments more likely.
- Six members will be elected per constituency via the D’Hondt method, meaning no single party can dominate as easily.
Politically, Labour — historically dominant in Wales — is under serious pressure. Polling suggests a fragmented four-way contest between Labour, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, and Jeremy Corbyn’s new party, “Your Party.” Plaid Cymru is polling strongest at around 30%. Reform UK has surged to around 25%, threatening Labour in areas once considered safe. Labour trails at roughly 18%, facing its weakest position in decades.Your Party could further split the left-leaning vote, particularly among younger voters. With Plaid Cymru and Reform UK potentially reshaping the Senedd, coalition-building will likely determine the next Welsh government’s direction.
Why it matters for Government relations & public affairs?
The Welsh policy environment could change dramatically, affecting funding, regulatory priorities, and lobbying strategies. Understanding how to influence AMs under a coalition-driven Senedd will be critical for organisations operating in Wales.Learn more: Lobbying the Welsh Parliament — Parli-training’s one-day intensive course equips you with the insights and tools to influence decision-makers effectively under the new political landscape.
Scotland: A Fragmented Future for Holyrood
The Scottish Parliament election — also scheduled for 7 May 2026 (with potential extension to 4 June) — is shaping up to be one of the most competitive contests in recent history. The SNP, under John Swinney, remains the largest political force but is facing growing challenges: Polls place the SNP at 33–34% on the constituency vote and 26–29% on the regional list — far lower than previous years.Reform UK has surged to 14–20%, often overtaking Labour in key constituencies. Labour continues to struggle, while Your Party — if aligned with the Greens — could reshape the progressive vote.
The independence debate, immigration, economic policy, and social reforms will dominate the campaign. A pro-independence majority is still possible if the SNP and Greens combine forces, but a fragmented parliament could lead to unpredictable coalitions and shifting alliances.
Why it matters for you
With so many competing political interests, influencing policy decisions in Scotland will require strategic lobbying and a deep understanding of Holyrood’s evolving dynamics.Discover our course: Lobbying the Scottish Parliament — Parli-training’s expert-led training helps you navigate the complexities of policymaking in a fragmented political environment.
The Public Affairs: Challenges & Realities
Fragmented power: Neither Scotland nor Wales is likely to see a single-party majority — coalition governments are increasingly probable.Reform UK’s rise: Rapid growth of Reform threatens the traditional dominance of Labour and the SNP.Youth-driven disruption: Corbyn’s Your Party could pull significant support from younger voters, reshaping progressive politics.Policy uncertainty: From independence debates to economic strategies, 2026 will set the tone for the next decade of devolved governance.
For charities, corporations, trade associations, and advocacy interest groups, these elections mean the rules of engagement are changing. Successfully navigating this environment will require a clear lobbying strategy and strong relationships with new decision-makers.
Next Steps
The 2026 elections will redraw the political map of Scotland and Wales. Whether your organisation seeks to influence legislation, secure funding, or drive policy change, Parli-training’s bespoke courses will prepare you to operate effectively in this new landscape:
- Lobbying the Welsh Parliament — Master strategies for influencing decision-makers in Cardiff Bay.
- Lobbying the Scottish Parliament — Understand Holyrood’s political structures and learn how to craft persuasive, targeted lobbying campaigns.