The Scottish Greens say they now pose a serious electoral threat to Scottish Labour after a strong poll and a surprise by-election victory. Party figures point to their breakthrough in Gorton and Denton as evidence that parts of Labour’s traditional base are reconsidering their loyalties.
Senior Greens argue the result was not a one-off protest vote. They believe it reflects a wider shift among voters who feel disillusioned with mainstream parties. Strategists inside the party say doorstep conversations suggest first-time Green voters are emerging in areas that once looked firmly Labour-leaning.
They also claim the by-election has boosted morale among activists. Local organisers report increased membership enquiries and volunteer sign-ups since the result. Party officials see that trend as a sign of momentum heading into the final stretch before the Scottish parliamentary vote.
Poll suggests tight race for second place
The final Scottish Election Study survey before May’s vote indicates the Greens could overtake Labour on the regional list. The poll places the Greens on 16%. Labour sits two points behind on 14%.
Seat modelling suggests the Greens could win 16 seats in the next Scottish Parliament. Labour could take 15. That outcome would push Anas Sarwar’s party into fourth place behind both the Scottish National Party and Reform UK.
The same projection gives the SNP 57 seats. Reform could secure 22. The Scottish Liberal Democrats could reach 10. The Scottish Conservatives might win nine.
If realised, those numbers would deliver a clear pro-independence majority. That prospect will shape campaign strategy across all parties in the coming weeks.
Green leaders claim momentum
Prominent Green MSPs such as Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay say the figures confirm what they see on the ground. They argue voters want political change and feel frustrated with Westminster’s direction.
Mackay has suggested Labour’s message no longer resonates with some of its historic supporters. She argues the party has lost momentum under Keir Starmer and says that dissatisfaction has created space for the Greens to expand.
Party strategists also believe their policy focus helps them stand out. They highlight climate action, public services and social justice as issues that attract voters who want clearer alternatives to larger parties. Internally, officials describe the campaign mood as confident but cautious, stressing that polling leads must still translate into votes.
Labour plays down poll impact
Labour figures reject suggestions that the party faces a major electoral threat. Speaking at a conference event in Paisley, Douglas Alexander said polls provide only snapshots of opinion rather than firm predictions.
He argued that voters will focus on the SNP’s long period in government when they cast their ballots. He also insisted Labour still has time to make its case and persuade undecided voters before polling day.
Labour strategists privately acknowledge that the electoral map remains fluid. However, they say campaign dynamics often shift during the final weeks. They point to past elections where late swings changed expectations.
Reform rise complicates contest
The survey, conducted by YouGov between 11 and 18 February with 1,517 respondents, also shows stable support for Reform. The party has maintained numbers in the high teens across both ballots.
Its Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, remains little known to voters. Seventy-one per cent of respondents said they did not recognise his name. Analysts note that such low recognition would normally limit support. Yet Reform’s vote share has held steady.
Researcher Fraser McMillan said this pattern suggests Reform voters feel dissatisfied with existing parties. He added that many appear uninterested in tactical voting and instead favour registering protest support.
Campaign battle taking shape
Holyrood’s system does not formally appoint an official opposition. Even so, the race for second place carries symbolic and political importance. Parties see it as a measure of momentum and credibility.
The latest data indicates that the contest may now centre on whether Labour can hold off a Green advance. For the Greens, the goal is to convert rising interest into seats. For Labour, the challenge is to reassure wavering supporters and stabilise its base.
With only weeks until voters go to the polls, both parties face a clear test. The question is no longer whether the Greens can grow. It is whether Labour can stop them.